Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
